2009/12/14
Chinese demand for B.C. lumber shows no sign of slowing, crashing through projections that were considered optimistic only two months ago and prompting one major forest company to factor the China story into a decision to reopen a shuttered sawmill.
Sales to China are expected to hit 18 to 19 per cent of B.C.'s total lumber production by the end of the year.
That's a big enough piece of the B.C. lumber pie to encourage Canfor Corp. to reopen its sawmill at Chetwynd, which has been closed since February 2008. A plan to restart the mill next May is to go before the Canfor board of directors later this month.
"We are seeing more demand out of Asia," said Canfor representative Dave Lefebvre. "And obviously China would be a big component in that."
The plan takes into account not only Chinese demand, but a stronger market for higher-end lumber products in American big-box retailers and reduced labour costs.
Lefebvre said the mill is to open on one shift initially, bringing back 65 employees. The mill employed 188 people on three shifts when it closed.
Canfor president Jim Shepard, returning from a trade mission to China two weeks ago, said he was extremely impressed with the growing Chinese market. "China is like America on steroids," he said in an interview.
Bell, who has been a booster of China as an alternate market to the United States, said the rapid growth there "is much bigger than we contemplated."
China sales hit 1.2 billion board feet by the end of September and are expected to hit 1.8 billion by the end of the year. B.C. is on track to produce 10 billion board feet of lumber.
Bell said projections of three billion board feet in sales by the end of 2010 are not unrealistic.
If some B.C. mills convert some of their production to metric measurements, which are more in demand in China, he said that figure could easily hit 3.5 billion board feet.
Paul Quinn, analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said the key to Chinese growth for B.C. suppliers is a new building code for the city of Shanghai that's designed to include lumber applications and an agreement signed between B.C. and the city of Shanghai to use lumber in new apartment construction. The agreement hitches B.C. to a $141-billion urban housing initiative that's part of China's stimulus package.
The explosive growth has ignited investor interest in forestry stocks.
Three Vancouver companies in particular -- Interfor, West Fraser Timber and Canfor -- have seen their shares jump dramatically since July. Interfor has climbed from $2.30 to $4.95 on Friday, Canfor from $4.75 to $7.41, and West Fraser from below $25 to $33.85.
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